Updates from CHC at 9:00 PM, Nov 3, 2007

WOCN31 CWHX 040000
Post-tropical storm Noel information statement issued by the
Canadian hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 PM ADT 
Saturday 03 November 2007.

The next statement will be issued by 12 midnight ADT

..Weather conditions deteriorating as Noel approaches the Maritimes
 ..Preparation efforts should now be completed...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 PM ADT... Post-tropical storm Noel was located near
Latitude 40.7 N and longitude 68.5 W... About 220 nautical miles
Or 400 km south southwest of Yarmouth Nova Scotia. Maximum sustained
Winds are estimated at 75 knots...139 km/h...And central pressure at
968 MB. Noel is moving north northeast at 31 knots...57 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind
          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh
Nov 03  9.00 PM  40.7N  68.5W   968   75  139 post-tropical
Nov 04  2.00 AM  43.5N  66.8W   965   75  139 post-tropical
Nov 04  8.00 AM  47.1N  64.8W   962   70  130 post-tropical
Nov 04  2.00 PM  50.7N  62.5W   965   60  111 post-tropical
Nov 04  8.00 PM  53.9N  60.1W   966   60  111 post-tropical
Nov 05  2.00 AM  56.9N  58.3W   968   55  102 post-tropical
Nov 05  8.00 AM  59.2N  57.2W   969   55  102 post-tropical
Nov 05  2.00 PM  62.0N  56.3W   972   50   93 post-tropical
Nov 05  8.00 PM  64.7N  55.8W   978   50   93 post-tropical

The current track has been moved back toward the east of the
Previous one..Based on a farther-east storm position at forecast
Time. This track brings the storm center just west of Nova Scotia..
Into the Bay of Fundy then across southeastern New Brunswick and
eventually through central Labrador.

Although Noel is a post-tropical storm we expect it to be
Accompanied by hurricane force winds. The public is advised not to
focus on the actual track of the storm centre since the high winds
and heavy rains will extend very far from the track line itself.

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary

The number of warnings for this storm are too numerous to list but
are summarized here with details being available in bulletins issued
by the Québec and Atlantic storm prediction centres and the
Newfoundland and Labrador weather office...
...Wind and/or rain warnings are in effect for Québec New Brunswick
pei Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador.
...Heavy snowfall warnings are in effect for Churchill Falls
And northern Labrador.

The strongest winds are expected to be in the Newfoundland Wreckhouse
Area and in Les Suetes in the Cape Breton Highlands...100 km/h
gusting to 180/160 respectively. 140 km/h wind gusts are forecast
over parts of Nova Scotia.

Heaviest rainfall forecast is 100 mm in portions of New Brunswick.

Significant wave heights of 10 m have been observed west of the storm
and are likely 12 m east of it. We are warning that these energetic
waves will create dangerous pounding surf conditions along the
atlanticcoast of Nova Scotia tonight and Sunday morning and and we
advise people to exercise extreme caution near these shores. Media
reports have alerted us to a High Level of interest in these waves
By the public and we advise against anyone testing these waters or
even going near the shore.

Storm surge is unlikely to be a major problem because tides are
running lower than normal. We do not expect total water levels to be
much above high astronomical tide.

Damage/impacts...
Where wind gusts to and above hurricane force (120 km/h) are forecast
..Expect tree limbs and branches to break which will likely lead to
downed power lines and power interruptions. Some trees will likely
Be uprooted. These winds will cause damage to roofing and cladding
material on some homes. Some signage could also suffer damage with
Winds gusting this high. Also..With 11-metre waves expected along
The Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia... And upwards of 8-metres in
The northeast gulf of st. Lawrence on Sunday. Coastal erosion of some
beaches is likely with possible damage to wharves and docks.
Rainfall may cause localized flooding in prone areas..Especially
where leaf litter clogs storm drains.

Embedded thundershowers are being reported over parts of Nova Scotia.
Winds could be particularly gusty in these thundershowers.

A summary of storm observations so far will be available in the 12
midnight intermediate bulletin.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for southwestern
Maritime waters and most Gulf of St Lawrence waters. Storm and gale
warnings are in effect for remaining waters of the Maritimes and
Newfoundland and for southern Labrador as well as for some st.
Lawrence river waters.

5. Technical discussion

A. Analysis
Buoy reports are confirming winds near 70 knots on the western side
of the storm along with 11 m sig wave heights. The storm center has
passed east of buoy 44008 to the southeast of Cape Cod.

Goes imagery provide a good center fix on the position and clearly
shows the energetic nature of the storm with convection still active
near storm core.

B. Prognostic
Initial motion is based on current extrapolation and model forecasts.
The track has been bumped back toward the east during the first part
Of the forecast period..Similar to the track issued last night.

C. Public weather
Details above.

D. Marine weather
Traditional wind radii table is left out given that the wind
distribution around the storm is much different than a purely
tropical system.

The trapped-fetch wave model continues suggesting that wam and ww3
may be underdoing the waves with this storm... With both of those
models showing 11-12m. With 10m appearing at b44008 the Max waves
should be well east of this so 13-15m is not out of the question.

Given the tropical history of this storm..The canadian hurricane
centre will continue messaging throughout the weekend.

End fogarty/bowyer