Saturday, November 3, 2007

'Huge' storm takes aim at Eastern Canada

Power outages reported in N.S., N.B.

Last Updated: Saturday, November 3, 2007 | 8:42 PM ET

The remnants of Hurricane Noel brought heavy rain Saturday to parts of Atlantic Canada where residents are bracing for strong winds, high surf and potential widespread electrical outages.

This satellite image taken Saturday at 1:45 p.m. ET shows the remnants of Hurricane Noel heading for Eastern Canada.This satellite image taken Saturday at 1:45 p.m. ET shows the remnants of Hurricane Noel heading for Eastern Canada.
(Weather Underground/Associated Press)

The storm is heading north to the region after cutting a swath through the Caribbean, where it left more than 100 people dead and caused tens of millions of dollars in damage.

Nova Scotia Power said the rough weather had knocked out power for about 1,000 customers along the province's south shore, but service was soon restored. In New Brunswick, more than 2,000 customers were in the dark in the Fredericton and Rothesay areas.

Nova Scotia Power spokeswoman Margaret Murphy said more outages were likely as the worst of the storm approached.

"Looking at the severe winds that were forecast, we could tell that there would be damage to different types of infrastructure across the province," she said. "That combination of power lines and trees, with those high winds, that's a recipe that would cause some damage."

Meanwhile, nearly all flights leaving and arriving at Halifax's Robert L. Stanfield International Airport on Saturday evening were cancelled, as were a handful Sunday morning.

The full brunt of the storm was expected to reach the Nova Scotia coast by late Saturday evening, but has shifted slightly westward with the eye's direct path leading into southern New Brunswick, forecasters said.

"This storm is really, really huge," forecaster Bob Robichaud told the Canadian Press from Dartmouth, N.S. "Any slight deviation in track is not going to have a huge impact on how bad conditions are going to be."

Waves reaching 10 metres

The effects of the storm were already being felt around 4 p.m. ET Saturday in the southern Nova Scotia town of Yarmouth, where dozens of stormwatchers turned out as the skies turned from bright blue to dark black and rain began pelting the shore.

"It feels like little nails biting on your face," the CBC's Stephen Puddicombe said.

Seas build off Nova Scotia as the remnants of Hurricane Noel arrive on Saturday. Seas build off Nova Scotia as the remnants of Hurricane Noel arrive on Saturday.
(CBC)

Residents in the storm's path flocked to grocery and hardware stores to stock up on supplies such as food, flashlights and generators, he added.

Forecasters predict gusts of 120 km/h inland and 140 km/h along the coastlines of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island late Saturday from what is being called a post-tropical storm.

"The winds are the major concern because of the amount of damage they can do," New Brunswick Emergency Measures Organization spokesman Ernie MacGillivray told CBC News on Saturday from Fredericton.

The system is expected to bring between 50 and 100 millimetres of rain to portions of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

Environment Canada also recorded waves as high as 10 metres pounding the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia on Saturday and warned they could reach as high as 12 metres when the storm hits.

People urged to prepare emergency kits

Peter Bowyer, program manager of the Canadian Hurricane Centre in Dartmouth, said Noel will not have the same impact as Hurricane Juan, which had winds of 165 km/h when it made landfall in Nova Scotia, but people should still prepare for very strong winds.

"This is not at this point anything like Hurricane Juan, but it's still a dangerous storm that can bring damaging winds," he said.

"We do expect there to be some significant ocean wave action along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia, probably eight to 10 metres, meaning individual wave heights can be upwards of twice that."

On Friday, the Nova Scotia Emergency Measures Organization was reminding people to stock up on supplies before the storm moves into the region.

People in the storm's path should have an emergency supply kit with batteries for flashlights, a transistor radio and enough food and water to allow them to remain self-sufficient for 72 hours, the organization said.

Nova Scotia Power said it has crews ready to be dispatched in case of outages.

"So we have put our crews on alert virtually in every county to cover every section of the province," said Murphy.

Volunteers on standby

The Canadian Red Cross said it has 500 volunteers on standby.

The RCMP were urging people to avoid Nova Scotia's coastline. Bowyer said the timing of the storm has eased worries somewhat about the risks of a storm surge.

"If there's anything positive to say,the storm is actually arriving at a very favourable point in the tidal cycle, so we're not overly concerned about the storm surge, except perhaps in the Northumberland Strait area," he said.

The storm will bring high winds and rain to Newfoundland and heavy snow for parts of Labrador by early Sunday, said meteorologist Chris Fogerty of the Canadian Hurricane Centre. A snowfall warning has been issued for the Churchill Falls area, where 20 centimetres of snow is expected.

Confederation Bridge FULLY CLOSED

Bridge Traffic Full Restriction
For user safety, the Confederation Bridge has restricted certain classes of vehicles from crossing until the current high wind situation changes. Restricted classes include automobiles towing trailers, motorcycles, highsided vehicles including trucks, tractor trailers, recreational vehicles, and buses.Bridge restrictions were put into place at 22:54hrs, November 03, 2007.You will be advised when the situation changes.

Preimer MacDonald Urges NS Residents to Stay inside and avoid weather

Stay inside to avoid Noel, warns N.S. premier
Updated Sat. Nov. 3 2007 8:17 PM ET
CTV.ca News Staff
Nova Scotia Premier Rodney MacDonald is urging people in the province to stay indoors, as post-tropical storm Noel brings high winds and rain to Atlantic Canada.
"We are used to stormy weather in Nova Scotia and people are prepared, but we're encouraging them to stay at home if at all possible," he told CTV Newsnet Saturday evening.
He also cautioned people to stay away from coastal areas.
"When you get waves in excess of 10 metres, it's better to be safe than sorry," he said.
Officials worry the storm will cause widespread power outages and similar damage to Hurricane Juan in 2003.
"All indications are that it could possibly be larger than what Juan was damage-wise," Doug Lovett, a spokesperson for Nova Scotia Power, told CTV Atlantic.
Noel was estimated to be about 400 kilometres south-southwest of Yarmouth, N.S., as of 8 p.m. ET, according to the latest bulletin issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.
The storm is moving north-northeast at a speed of 57 kilometres per hour, with maximum sustained winds blowing at 139 kilometres per hour.
"Although Noel is a post-tropical storm we expect it to be accompanied by hurricane force winds," the Centre warned.
According to Environment Canada, rain began to pelt the Yarmouth region Saturday morning and coastal winds have already been clocked at 78 kilometres per hour.
Bob Robichaud, a meteorologist with Environment Canada's Hurricane Centre, told CTV Newsnet on Saturday that the massive system is "intensifying."
"It's covering a pretty huge area right now," he said from Halifax.
"It won't be until later today that we really get into the nasty weather. In terms of the worst of it, we're probably looking at some time after midnight into the early morning hours of tomorrow morning for the exact worst conditions to hit."
Meteorologists are expecting hurricane-force winds along the Atlantic coast with 70 millimetres of rain forecasted for parts of Nova Scotia.
Gusts of 120 kilometres per hour are expected for Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, eastern New Brunswick and along the southern coast of Newfoundland.
The system will move across the Gulf of St. Lawrence Sunday and through Labrador Sunday night.
Maritimers stocked up on emergency supplies Saturday as Nova Scotia Power prepared for the possibility of widespread power outages by having crews inspect powerlines.
Hydro officials in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick say all crews will be on standby and private contractors may be called in to assist in restoring power and removing downed trees.
"We've been talking about this for a few days now, so I think people are aware of it and hopefully taking the proper precautions," Robichaud said.
Lovett urged people to stay off the streets when the storm hits and avoid any fallen powerlines.
"The best thing with powerlines is to leave them well enough alone, and let the people who deal with that kind of thing do their job," he said.
Environment Canada will be co-ordinating with emergency services throughout the Atlantic provinces to keep them abreast of changing conditions.
Noel has blazed a path of destruction through the Caribbean, claiming more than 115 lives.
The storm triggered mudslides and floods, forcing some parents to choose which of their children to save from the high waters.
With reports from CTV Atlantic and The Canadian Press

Halifax Stanfield International Airport ALL FLIGHTS CANCELLED

See Arrivals and Departures under:

http://www.hiaa.ca/default.asp?mn=70.1.8

Current Power Outages from Nova Scotia Power

Outage Report last updated
Sat Nov 3 22:05:57 2007

Estimated restoration times for individual customers in a given area may differ. This may be due to damage to NSPI equipment in your neighborhood or damage to your home, such as your service mast.
For the most up-to-date information please call Nova Scotia Power's outage line at
1-877-428-6004 or 428-6004(metro) Halifax.


OUTAGES
Community
Estimated Time to Restore



Bridgewater 11/06/2007 11:30 PM


Chester 11/06/2007 11:30 PM


Kingston 11/06/2007 11:30 PM


Middle and Upper Musquodoboit 11/06/2007 11:30 PM


New Glasgow/Pictou County 11/06/2007 11:30 PM


Oxford/Pugwash 11/06/2007 11:30 PM


Port Hawkesbury 11/06/2007 11:30 PM


Windsor 11/06/2007 11:30 PM

Updates from CHC at 9:00 PM, Nov 3, 2007

WOCN31 CWHX 040000
Post-tropical storm Noel information statement issued by the
Canadian hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 PM ADT
Saturday 03 November 2007.

The next statement will be issued by 12 midnight ADT

..Weather conditions deteriorating as Noel approaches the Maritimes
..Preparation efforts should now be completed...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 PM ADT... Post-tropical storm Noel was located near
Latitude 40.7 N and longitude 68.5 W... About 220 nautical miles
Or 400 km south southwest of Yarmouth Nova Scotia. Maximum sustained
Winds are estimated at 75 knots...139 km/h...And central pressure at
968 MB. Noel is moving north northeast at 31 knots...57 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Nov 03 9.00 PM 40.7N 68.5W 968 75 139 post-tropical
Nov 04 2.00 AM 43.5N 66.8W 965 75 139 post-tropical
Nov 04 8.00 AM 47.1N 64.8W 962 70 130 post-tropical
Nov 04 2.00 PM 50.7N 62.5W 965 60 111 post-tropical
Nov 04 8.00 PM 53.9N 60.1W 966 60 111 post-tropical
Nov 05 2.00 AM 56.9N 58.3W 968 55 102 post-tropical
Nov 05 8.00 AM 59.2N 57.2W 969 55 102 post-tropical
Nov 05 2.00 PM 62.0N 56.3W 972 50 93 post-tropical
Nov 05 8.00 PM 64.7N 55.8W 978 50 93 post-tropical

The current track has been moved back toward the east of the
Previous one..Based on a farther-east storm position at forecast
Time. This track brings the storm center just west of Nova Scotia..
Into the Bay of Fundy then across southeastern New Brunswick and
eventually through central Labrador.

Although Noel is a post-tropical storm we expect it to be
Accompanied by hurricane force winds. The public is advised not to
focus on the actual track of the storm centre since the high winds
and heavy rains will extend very far from the track line itself.

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary

The number of warnings for this storm are too numerous to list but
are summarized here with details being available in bulletins issued
by the Québec and Atlantic storm prediction centres and the
Newfoundland and Labrador weather office...
...Wind and/or rain warnings are in effect for Québec New Brunswick
pei Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador.
...Heavy snowfall warnings are in effect for Churchill Falls
And northern Labrador.

The strongest winds are expected to be in the Newfoundland Wreckhouse
Area and in Les Suetes in the Cape Breton Highlands...100 km/h
gusting to 180/160 respectively. 140 km/h wind gusts are forecast
over parts of Nova Scotia.

Heaviest rainfall forecast is 100 mm in portions of New Brunswick.

Significant wave heights of 10 m have been observed west of the storm
and are likely 12 m east of it. We are warning that these energetic
waves will create dangerous pounding surf conditions along the
atlanticcoast of Nova Scotia tonight and Sunday morning and and we
advise people to exercise extreme caution near these shores. Media
reports have alerted us to a High Level of interest in these waves
By the public and we advise against anyone testing these waters or
even going near the shore.

Storm surge is unlikely to be a major problem because tides are
running lower than normal. We do not expect total water levels to be
much above high astronomical tide.

Damage/impacts...
Where wind gusts to and above hurricane force (120 km/h) are forecast
..Expect tree limbs and branches to break which will likely lead to
downed power lines and power interruptions. Some trees will likely
Be uprooted. These winds will cause damage to roofing and cladding
material on some homes. Some signage could also suffer damage with
Winds gusting this high. Also..With 11-metre waves expected along
The Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia... And upwards of 8-metres in
The northeast gulf of st. Lawrence on Sunday. Coastal erosion of some
beaches is likely with possible damage to wharves and docks.
Rainfall may cause localized flooding in prone areas..Especially
where leaf litter clogs storm drains.

Embedded thundershowers are being reported over parts of Nova Scotia.
Winds could be particularly gusty in these thundershowers.

A summary of storm observations so far will be available in the 12
midnight intermediate bulletin.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for southwestern
Maritime waters and most Gulf of St Lawrence waters. Storm and gale
warnings are in effect for remaining waters of the Maritimes and
Newfoundland and for southern Labrador as well as for some st.
Lawrence river waters.

5. Technical discussion

A. Analysis
Buoy reports are confirming winds near 70 knots on the western side
of the storm along with 11 m sig wave heights. The storm center has
passed east of buoy 44008 to the southeast of Cape Cod.

Goes imagery provide a good center fix on the position and clearly
shows the energetic nature of the storm with convection still active
near storm core.

B. Prognostic
Initial motion is based on current extrapolation and model forecasts.
The track has been bumped back toward the east during the first part
Of the forecast period..Similar to the track issued last night.

C. Public weather
Details above.

D. Marine weather
Traditional wind radii table is left out given that the wind
distribution around the storm is much different than a purely
tropical system.

The trapped-fetch wave model continues suggesting that wam and ww3
may be underdoing the waves with this storm... With both of those
models showing 11-12m. With 10m appearing at b44008 the Max waves
should be well east of this so 13-15m is not out of the question.

Given the tropical history of this storm..The canadian hurricane
centre will continue messaging throughout the weekend.

End fogarty/bowyer



Updates from Thomas Hood in Sydney, Cape Breton, NS

Im in Sydney and the rain is steadily as is the wind speed they predictided the leading edge to get to us by 7PM and it pretty much did that, like most spots they have said we should be feeling the full force between 12 and 4.

Here are our current warnings:
Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County
3:49 PM ADT Saturday 3 November 2007
Wind warning for
Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County continued

Dangerous winds tonight with gusts exceeding 100 km/h.



Dangerous post-tropical storm Noel will approach Nova Scotia and track across the Bay of Fundy tonight reaching the Gulf of St Lawrence Sunday morning. The main threat with this storm will be potentially damaging winds..Heavy rain and pounding ocean waves.

Gusty easterly winds up to 100 km/h are expected tonight over the mainland. Les Suetes winds gusting to 160 km/h are also forecast. Winds will become southwest with gusts from 100 to 120 km/h with 140 km/h possible over some coastal areas behind the low. These winds could lead to downed trees and power lines leading to power interuptions and cause damage to roofing and cladding material on some homes.

Rainfall amounts of 50 to 70 millimetres are expected over the western half of the province..While 30 to 40 millimetres are expected over eastern portions. Showers will end Sunday morning. Rainfall may cause localized flooding in prone areas..Especially where leaf litter clogs storm drains.

11-metre waves are expected along the Atlantic coast tonight and Sunday morning leading to very heavy pounding surf. Erosion of some beaches is likely and some coastal infrastructure damage is possible.

Most people i think are predicting power outages overnite and in to the morning,as long as i get to see the rest of Hockey |Nite in Canada i'll be ok :P

Satellite Image on Saturday Nov 3, 2007 at 8:38 PM- Noel Heads for Nova Scotia


Note: Power outages now being reported in Metro Halifax. Winds still to gust up to 140 kmph over night and well into Sunday. 12m (40 + feet) high waves expected along the coast of Nova Scotia.

Thunder and Lightning

Lots of thunder and lightning here in Cole Harbour here right now.
Currently 8:13 PM Saturday November 3.

Very high wind gusts also.

Latest Satellite image of Noel Saturday Nov 3, 2007

Environment Canada's Official Weather Warnings - 3:49 PM ADT Saturday 3 November 2007

Warnings
Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
3:49 PM ADT Saturday 3 November 2007
Wind warning for
Halifax Metro and Halifax County West continued

Dangerous winds tonight with gusts exceeding 100 km/h.



Dangerous post-tropical storm Noel will approach Nova Scotia and track across the Bay of Fundy tonight reaching the Gulf of St Lawrence Sunday morning. The main threat with this storm will be potentially damaging winds..Heavy rain and pounding ocean waves.

Gusty easterly winds up to 100 km/h are expected tonight over the mainland. Les Suetes winds gusting to 160 km/h are also forecast. Winds will become southwest with gusts from 100 to 120 km/h with 140 km/h possible over some coastal areas behind the low. These winds could lead to downed trees and power lines leading to power interuptions and cause damage to roofing and cladding material on some homes.

Rainfall amounts of 50 to 70 millimetres are expected over the western half of the province..While 30 to 40 millimetres are expected over eastern portions. Showers will end Sunday morning. Rainfall may cause localized flooding in prone areas..Especially where leaf litter clogs storm drains.

11-metre waves are expected along the Atlantic coast tonight and Sunday morning leading to very heavy pounding surf. Erosion of some beaches is likely and some coastal infrastructure damage is possible.

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
3:49 PM ADT Saturday 3 November 2007
Rainfall warning for
Halifax Metro and Halifax County West continued

Rainfall amounts of 50 to 70 millimetres tonight.



Dangerous post-tropical storm Noel will approach Nova Scotia and track across the Bay of Fundy tonight reaching the Gulf of St Lawrence Sunday morning. The main threat with this storm will be potentially damaging winds..Heavy rain and pounding ocean waves.

Gusty easterly winds up to 100 km/h are expected tonight over the mainland. Les Suetes winds gusting to 160 km/h are also forecast. Winds will become southwest with gusts from 100 to 120 km/h with 140 km/h possible over some coastal areas behind the low. These winds could lead to downed trees and power lines leading to power interuptions and cause damage to roofing and cladding material on some homes.

Rainfall amounts of 50 to 70 millimetres are expected over the western half of the province..While 30 to 40 millimetres are expected over eastern portions. Showers will end Sunday morning. Rainfall may cause localized flooding in prone areas..Especially where leaf litter clogs storm drains.

11-metre waves are expected along the Atlantic coast tonight and Sunday morning leading to very heavy pounding surf. Erosion of some beaches is likely and some coastal infrastructure damage is possible.

Satellite Image on Saturday Nov 3, 2007 at 2:51 PM- Noel Heads for Nova Scotia


The track has now moved significantly closer to New Brunswick.

Noreaster Noel taken at 10:45am EDT 11/03/07

Satellite Image on Saturday Nov 3, 2007 - Noel Heads for Nova Scotia

Environment Canada Track as of 8:54AM Nov 3, 2007

Dangerous' storm heads to eastern Canada

Last Updated: Saturday, November 3, 2007 | 9:53 AM ET

CBC

People in Atlantic Canada are expecting heavy rain, strong winds and possible electrical outages as the remnants of Hurricane Noel hit the region this weekend.

The storm is heading north after cutting a swath through the Caribbean, where it left more than 100 people dead and caused tens of millions of dollars in damage.

"Basically, we're looking for it to reach the coast of Nova Scotia late Saturday evening," said Peter Bowyer, program manager of the Canadian Hurricane Centre in Darmouth.

"The winds and the rain will start moving into Nova Scotia long before that in the southwestern Maritimes ... with conditions deteriorating throughout the day."

Bowyer said Noel will not have the same impact as Hurricane Juan, which had winds of 165 km/hr when it made landfall in Nova Scotia, but people should still prepare for very strong winds.

"This is not at this point anything like Hurricane Juan, but it's still a dangerous storm that can bring damaging winds," he said.


"We do expect there to be some significant ocean wave action along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia, probably eight to 10 metres, meaning individual wave heights can be upwards of twice that."

Forecasters predict gusts of 120 km/hr inland and 140 km/hr along the coastlines of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island late Saturday from what is being called a post-tropical storm.

The system is expected to bring between 50 and 70 millimetres of rain to portions of western Nova Scotia and central New Brunswick.

People urged to prepare emergency kits

On Friday, the Nova Scotia Emergency Measures Organization was reminding people to stock up on supplies before the storm moves into the region.

People in the storm's path should have an emergency supply kit with batteries for flashlights, a transistor radio and enough food and water to allow them to remain self-sufficient for 72 hours, the organization said.

Nova Scotia Power said it has crews ready to be dispatched in case of outages.

"So we have put our crews on alert virtually in every county to cover every section of the province," said Margaret Murphy, a spokeswoman for the utility.

The Canadian Red Cross said it has 500 volunteers on standby.

The RCMP were urging people to avoid Nova Scotia's coastline. Peter Bowyer of the Hurricane Centre said the timing of the storm has eased worries somewhat about the risks of a storm surge.

"If there's anything positive to say,the storm is actually arriving at a very favourable point in the tidal cycle, so we're not overly concerned about the storm surge, except perhaps in the Northumberland Strait area," he said.

Air Canada has cancelled several flights leaving or coming into Halifax on Saturday. The airline is asking travellers to check ahead before going to Robert L. Stanfield International Airport in Halifax.

The storm will bring high winds and rain to Newfoundland and heavy snow for parts of Labrador by early Sunday, said meteorologist Chris Fogerty of the Canadian Hurricane Centre. A snowfall warning has been issued for the Churchill Falls area, where 20 centimetres of snow is expected.

Northwest Atlantic - JSL Color Infrared Loop - Hurricane Noel

Check out this site:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-jsl.html

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