Updates from CHC at 3:.00 AM Saturday 04 November 2007

WOCN31 CWHX 040600
Post-tropical storm Noel information statement issued by the
Canadian hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 AM AST
Sunday 04 November 2007.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 AM AST

...Highest winds from post-tropical storm Noel set to lash
   The Maritimes this morning...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 2.00 AM ADT... Post-tropical storm Noel was located near
Latitude 43.6 N and longitude 66.2 W... About 15 nautical miles
Or 30 km southwest of Yarmouth . Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 75 knots... 139 km/h... And central pressure at 967
MB. Noel is moving north northeast at 34 knots... 63 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind
          AST                    MB  kts  kmh
Nov 04  2.00 AM  43.6N  66.2W   967   75  139 post-tropical
Nov 04  9.00 AM  46.9N  64.6W   965   70  130 post-tropical
Nov 04  3.00 PM  50.6N  62.4W   965   60  111 post-tropical
Nov 04  9.00 PM  53.9N  60.1W   966   60  111 post-tropical
Nov 05  3.00 AM  57.0N  58.5W   968   55  102 post-tropical
Nov 05  9.00 AM  59.2N  57.2W   969   55  102 post-tropical
Nov 05  3.00 PM  62.0N  56.3W   972   50   93 post-tropical
Nov 05  9.00 PM  64.7N  55.8W   977   50   93 post-tropical
Nov 06  3.00 AM  67.4N  55.3W   983   45   83 post-tropical

Although Noel is a post-tropical storm we expect it to be
Accompanied by hurricane force winds. The public is advised not to
focus on the actual track of the storm centre since the high winds
are extending very far from the track line itself.

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary

The storm circulation is remarkably large..Affecting all of Atlantic
Canada and parts of New England.

Wind warnings remain in effect for Nova Scotia..Pei..Eastern and
Southern parts of New Brunswick..The Magdalen Islands..And parts of
Newfoundland and Québec. The heaviest rainfall is now limited to
Areas well west..North and east of the storm center. Heavy snow is
even occurring over parts of Labrador where snowfall warnings have
been posted.

The strongest winds are expected to be in the Newfoundland Wreckhouse
Area and in Les Suetes in the Cape Breton Highlands...100 km/h
gusting to 160. 140 km/h damaging wind gusts are forecast over parts
of Nova Scotia this morning. A peak wind of 117 km/h was reported at
mcnab's island at 06Z.

A peak significant wave height of 14 m was measured by buoy 44011 on
Georges Bank not far east of the storm center. We are warning that
these energetic waves will create dangerous pounding surf conditions
along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia this morning and into the
afternoon. We advise people to exercise extreme caution near these
shores. Media reports have alerted us to a High Level of interest in
these waves by the public and we advise against anyone testing these
waters or even going near the shore.

Storm surge is unlikely to be a major problem because tides are
running lower than normal. We do not expect total water levels to be
much above high astronomical tide.

Damage/impacts...
Where wind gusts to and above hurricane force (120-140 km/h) are
Forecast..Expect tree limbs and branches to break which will likely
lead to downed power lines and power interruptions. Some trees will
likely be uprooted. These winds will cause damage to roofing and
cladding material on some homes. Some signage could also suffer
Damage with winds gusting this high. Also..With 9-13-metre waves
Expected along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia... And upwards of
8 metres in the northeast gulf of st. Lawrence later today. Coastal
erosion of some beaches is likely with possible damage to wharves
And docks.

There have been reports of tree damage and power outages in the
Halifax area late tonight. There was also a report of a roof lifted
off a trailer home somewhere in the city.

The rainfall threat is almost over..But in some parts of
New Brunswick and western Nova Scotia where some additional rain
Is expected this morning..Localized flooding in prone areas is
Likely where leaf litter from the storm has clogged storm drains.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for southwestern
Maritime waters and most Gulf of St Lawrence waters. Storm and gale
warnings are in effect for remaining waters of the Maritimes and
Newfoundland and for southern Labrador as well as for some st.
Lawrence river waters.

5. Technical discussion

A. Analysis
The center of the storm is racing toward western Nova Scotia at
forecast issue time. It appears to be a bit farther east than
Earlier expected..But not enough to make a big difference in the
forecast.

B. Prognostic
The gem regional model..Principal guidance for this
Forecast..Initialized the storm about 10 MB too high. Accordingly..
We maintain our current intensity forecast and bump-up the gem
Wind speeds. The storm still likely has remanants of a warm core
With gusty winds mixing down from the top of the boundary layer.

Overall forecast remains unchanged except for slightly eastward-
adjusted track forecast based on sat pix and model tracks. The
Most damaging winds are set to move across Nova Scotia at issue
Time. An intermediate bulletin will be issued by 6 AM AST.

C. Public weather
See above.

D. Marine weather
See above.

Given the tropical history of this storm..The canadian hurricane
centre will continue to prepare storm bulletins today.

End fogarty